A demonstration of just how irrelevant Germany has become on the geopolitical stage arrived last week, when Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated his belief that the US had no intention of striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. Of course, he was swiftly proven wrong. Wadephul’s assessment was not based on information from Washington. Indeed, it was proof that the Trump administration never thought to consult Berlin before acting.

The European Union is no doubt frustrated about how it has been completely sidelined when it comes to strategic decision-making in the Middle East. This may explain why German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, after commending Israel for doing the West’s “dirty work” in Iran, is now calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. In a speech this week in the Bundestag, he confirmed German support for Israel’s right to self-defence, but also said that Berlin has the right to “critically question what Israel wants to achieve in the Gaza Strip”.

While it is unlikely that this will lead to a change in policy in Jerusalem, it shows that public opinion is shifting in Germany. Support for Israel is waning and, with only a small majority in parliament, Merz cannot afford to completely ignore these critical voices.

A poll last week conducted for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung revealed how significant this shift has been. When asked whether they “have a positive or negative view of the State of Israel”, 20% answered that they had a positive or very positive view. In 2022, this figure was 54%. The number of those who have a rather negative or very negative view of Israel, meanwhile, rose from 23% to 57%. Only 13% considered Israel’s military campaign in Gaza to be justified, while 65% did not. In January 2024, these figures were 27% and 43% respectively.

The German coalition government also has to fight off attempts by Left-wing opposition parties Die Linke (The Left) and the BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) to capitalise on this issue. According to Die Welt, the BSW is demanding an immediate halt to all military and intelligence cooperation between Germany (and Nato) and Israel, as well as an immediate end to all German weapons exports to Israel. It is also urging the government to initiate an EU Council effort to suspend the EU’s Association Agreement with Israel. Not to be outdone, Die Linke is planning a major protest next month against Israel’s war in Gaza.

Merz is already considered a weak chancellor with falling support, so being perceived as a vassal of the US and Israel would not help. An April Forsa poll found that only 21% of respondents viewed Merz as trustworthy, a decline of nine points since August 2024 and three points since January 2025. Only 40% saw him as a strong leader, and just 27% believed he understood the concerns of ordinary people, with both figures down nine points since January.

As Germany’s influence in the Middle East dwindles and domestic criticism of Israel intensifies, Merz must balance international alliances with shifting public opinion and political opposition at home. He will also be keenly aware of his plummeting popularity. This is no simple task, and focusing too much on one problem may aggravate the other. As yet, there are not many signs that he can keep the juggle going for long.

---

Ralph Schoellhammer is assistant professor of International Relations at Webster University, Vienna.

Raphfel

---